Some observational studies have found that young people who vape are more likely than those who do not vape to later report smoking cigarettes. However, this association does not necessarily demonstrate a causal “gateway” effect. Young people who vape and those who smoke may share other characteristics or risk factors that make them more likely to use both products.
Population trends also provide important context. In the USA, e-cigarettes became the most commonly used tobacco product among young people while cigarette smoking continued to decline. In 2024, current cigarette smoking among US middle and high school students reached the lowest level ever recorded by the National Youth Tobacco Survey.
The available evidence therefore does not establish that vaping is causing a population-level increase in youth smoking. However, preventing nicotine use among young people who would otherwise not use nicotine remains an important public health objective.