Smoking, vaping, HTP, NRT and snus in South Africa

There has been a downwards trend in current smoking prevalence in the general population in South Africa. Smoking prevalence was 22% overall in 2000 and declined to 20% in 2015, with a further drop to 19% projected by 2025. For men the prevalence decreased from 35% in 2000 to 33% in 2015, with a further decrease to under 32% projected by 2025. For women prevalence was 11% in 2000; this decreased to around 8% in 2015, and is projected to decrease further to around 7% by 2025. The WHO published prevalence trend estimates in tobacco smoking, as shown here, in their 2018 2nd edition report, which show slightly different smoking prevalence to the WHO country profiles. Data for the estimates are not age standardised, and were obtained from WHO databases. The trend lines are projections, not predictions, of future attainment. A projection indicates a likely endpoint if the country maintains its tobacco control efforts at the same level that it has implemented them to date. Therefore the impact of recent interventions could alter the expected endpoint shown in the projection. While the methods of estimation used in the first and second editions of the WHO report are the same, the volume of data available for the second edition is larger i.e. 200 more national surveys. The results presented are therefore more robust.