Global Market Size for Vapour (E-Cigarette and HNB) Products (2011-2021)

As with any economic forecasting, market analysts will have differing views as to the future state of commodity markets. This is particularly evident when making predictions about safer nicotine products, especially with uncertainties about global regulations. This graphic shows estimates from Euromonitor showing the continuing growth of the combined e-cigarette and heat-not-burn markets.

In 2012, the global market value for e-cigarettes was estimated by Euromonitor at US$2bn. In 2018, their estimate for the global market was around US$14bn (higher than the E Cig Intelligence estimate of US$8.6bn).

Euromonitor now combines estimates for e-cigarettes and heat-not-burn into a single ‘vapour product category’. In 2016, the figure for all vapour products had jumped to around US$12.3bn.

At the moment, this puts vapour products behind all forms of tobacco products – not just cigarettes at US$683.4bn, but also smoking tobacco (US$26.8bn), cigars (US$25.8bn) and smokeless tobacco (US$12.5bn). Though still small in comparison with the cigarette market, the growth rates are significant: Euromonitor reports growth in vapour products sales value of 818% over the period 2011 to 2016.

But by 2021 Euromonitor estimates, the all-product vapour market will be more valuable than the market for all tobacco products except cigarettes, with a global value of around US$34bn.

There was a 43% growth in the value of the global market in 2015, but this had slowed to 34% in 2016. Analysts attribute this slowdown to the fact that in the strongest markets, like the USA, consumers were moving away from market leader cigalikes (as found in many service stations and convenience stores) towards more closed system products or pod mods, which combine the convenience of cigalikes with the greater flavour ranges and nicotine strengths offered by self-fill systems.

See also p. 35 of the report: No Fire, No Smoke: The Global State of Tobacco Harm Reduction 2018 — Global State of Tobacco Harm Reduction (gsthr.org)